How much will the climatic phenomena linked to El Niño in 2024 influence cocoa production in Africa? The problem was raised by Aleksandra Kusz , head of corporate communications at the historic Polish confectionery company Wedel. In particular, what worries the entire chocolate industry in general are the first months of the year, due to the uncertainty about the strength of the impact that El Niño will have on the 2023-2024 harvest.

Currently, Kusz adds, it is as if we found ourselves in limbo, because the actual implications of the climate phenomenon on the cocoa market should only be clear at the end of the first quarter: only then should we receive concrete data, and will we be able to plan the next steps. But in the meantime this situation of uncertainty gives rise to mere speculation and a probable, perhaps unjustified, increase in prices.

We therefore expect an extremely difficult first half of 2024 for the entire industrial sector globally, hoping for market stabilization, but not before the second half of 2024.

70% of the cocoa used in chocolate production comes from Africa.