Poor prospects for cereals, stable for oilseeds and positive for protein crops, but the situation could worsen. This is, in a nutshell, the analysis of the experts of the COPA and Cogeca working groups who focused on cereals, oilseeds and protein crops with a one-year "very poor for EU cereals in 2024, a stable year for oilseeds while for protein crops the results should be more positive". But the situation, as experts say, "could get even worse". 

Cereal

Cereal production in the EU-27 is expected to reach 257.3 million tonnes, a decrease of 4.7% compared to the 2023 harvest. Meanwhile, oilseed production is expected to decrease by 1% with 31.9 million tons, while protein crops will increase by 13% with 3.9 million tons. 

Cereal yields are currently expected to drop slightly in 2024 (-1.2%) and, considering a decrease in the area sown (-3.5%), the results for the harvest should be lower than 2023. Interestingly, the Copa-Cogeca statement underlines, "a fair decrease in wheat production (-6.3%) and barley (-9%), while corn remains stable (-0.5%) and oats slightly increased (+21.2%)". 

As regards the geographical distribution of production, the report adds that most of the northern Member States (Belgium, France, Denmark, Germany) and the Central and Eastern European countries have recorded a fall in production, sometimes quite consequent (-3 million tonnes for Poland, -9 million tonnes for France): this is not really compensated by the sharp increase in production in Spain compared to 2023 (+3 million tonnes for Spain). 

"Overall -explains the note-, this places 2024 below 2023 (which was already a poor year), but also far below the average of the grain production of the last 5 years (-8.4%)". This already worrying forecast, add the experts of the Copa-Cogeca, "could worsen in the coming weeks and months, due to the complicated weather events and the impossibility of working in the fields; sowing has therefore been delayed in many areas, making yields very sensitive to weather conditions in the coming weeks".

Oilseeds

For oilseeds the situation is quite stable with a small decrease in surface area (-1.6%) but with a slight improvement in yields (+0.7%) which led to a small decrease in production compared to 2023 (-1%) mainly due to a reduction in both the area sown and the yields of rapeseed. However, compared to the five-year average, this year remains quite positive (+6.3%). 
As for the situation in the individual Member States, it is quite uniform: we can only note a significant increase in Spain (+50% year on year) explained by the extremely poor year they had in 2022, while in Poland the reduction in production is quite high compared to other countries (-15% year on year). 

Protein crops

As for protein crops, the overall situation is very positive, except in France, where we expect a 16% reduction on an annual basis, mainly due to yields. " However, both for oilseeds and protein crops, as for cereals, the coming weeks will be crucial and could change the situation", concludes the Copa Cogeca.