After a 2023 that had seen a significant reduction in global wine consumption (following the euphoria recorded the previous year by consumers around the world in response to the end of the pandemic), 2024 confirmed the negative trend, particularly on the international trade front. Among the 12 main import markets (which, incidentally, account for over 60% of global wine imports), positive variations were recorded only for the United States, Canada, China and Brazil.

In this context, wine purchases from Italy are growing more than average, thanks above all to sparkling wines which, in the same panel of 12 markets, recorded a +4.8% export in value against an aggregate average of -5.1%, with peaks of +11% in the United States, 10% in Australia and 9% in Canada. These are some of the main findings that emerged during the XI Wine Monitor Forum.

“Unfortunately, the main import markets closed 2024 in further decline and those that went against the trend imply wine consumption still suffering as in the case of the United States or China, where the 38% rebound in imports is entirely attributable to the return of Australian wines after they had been banned by the Chinese government in 2021 with a super duty of 218%”, highlights Denis Pantini , head of Agri-food and Wine Monitor at Nomisma.

A comeback that allowed Australian wine exports to close 2024 with a 30% growth compared to the previous year, when they had instead suffered a 10% collapse. And those who were unable to recover from the 2023 decline were French wines, which, overall, lost another 2.4% in the value of exported wines (after -2.7% the previous year).

“If in 2023 French wine exports fell due to the reduction in cross-border sales of red wines, in 2024 it was Champagne that dragged down transalpine exports, with 10% fewer bottles shipped around the world” added Pantini .

On the domestic market, the inflationary surge of recent years has left an Italian consumer with lower spending capacity and future expectations still marked by caution. This is what can be deduced from the quantities of wine sold in Modern Distribution which, for 2024, show a reduction of almost -2% in the Hyper and Super channel, with higher peaks in the case of red wines (-4.6%) and sparkling wines (-7.4%). The volumes sold have instead held up in discount, also recording a growth in values of 1.2%, in particular thanks to sparkling wines.

In this complex and uncertain scenario, undermined by resurgences of protectionism and threats of additional duties, the search for new outlet markets is becoming an increasingly priority for Italian wine companies. In the last three years, wine exports from Italy have grown in the areas of Eastern Europe and Latin America: Poland (+26% compared to 2022), the Czech Republic (+47%), Romania (+22%), Mexico (+3%) and Ecuador (+56%) are some of the markets where the wines of the Bel Paese are increasingly appreciated. Without forgetting Brazil, a large market of over 200 million inhabitants and part of the free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur, where "red wines, especially Tuscan and Piedmontese, are the most appreciated by Brazilian consumers, especially from the South-East Region, with a medium-high education and income, belonging to the Millennial generation", as was evident from the in-depth analysis by Fabio Benassi , Project Manager of Nomisma Wine Monitor.

A sensitive issue that emerged from the presentation is represented by consumers and, in particular, their evolution in light of the fact that in Italy in the main markets - such as, for example, the United States - the majority of wine consumption is still supported by the over 60s. "In Italy, young people belonging to Gen Z consume wine only on special occasions, have little knowledge of the product and when they choose it they pay primary attention to the alcohol content and sustainability. And the same happens in the United States and this explains why No Alcol wines, in the USA, are already a widespread reality in the consumption of the younger generations", declared Ilaria Cisbani , Market Analyst of Nomisma Wine Monitor.